An Early and Intense Start to the Fire Season

At the beginning of May, the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), which tracks wildfire activity across the country, released its 2026 wildfire outlook. So far this year, more than 29,000 wildfires have burned over 2.3 million acres nationwide. To put this in perspective, that is roughly double the 10-year average for this point in the year. The number of wildfires that have burned are also record breaking, and are 150% above the ten-year average.

Scientists say several major factors are contributing to these conditions, including widespread drought, reduced snowpack out west, excess vegetation acting as fuel, shifting climate patterns like El Niño, cuts to forest management and research programs, and the broader effects of rising global temperatures.

Drought Is Drying the Landscape

One of the largest contributors to wildfire risk is drought, and currently, 62% of the continental United States is in one. During a drought, vegetation loses moisture, and in turn becomes easier to ignite. This, of course, allows fire to spread more rapidly. Drought has compounding effects on plants. Similar to how you and I can get sick if we are dehydrated, so do plants. The lack of moisture makes them more vulnerable to disease, insect outbreaks, and die-offs, all of which create additional dry fuel for fires.

While drought is often associated with the western United States, the Midwest has also experienced increasingly erratic rainfall patterns and longer stretches of hot, dry weather in recent years. Climate scientists warn that these swings between wet and dry conditions are becoming more common as global temperatures rise, which increase the risk of fires happening here at home too.

The Role of Snowpack (Or Lack Thereof)

In the western U.S., mountain snowpack acts as a water reservoir and slowly melts through spring and summer, supplying water to rivers and forests. This year, however, snowpack levels across much of the country are at a record low. Alaska, and every continental state west of Colorado, is experiencing some level of snow drought. As of spring, snow water equivalent levels were 65% below average, marking the lowest since satellite records began in 2001. 

Regions in the United States that are being hit particularly hard are the Rocky Mountains and the Cascades. As of March 12, Colorado has the lowest snowpack of any western state, with 97% of snowpack-measuring stations reporting a snow drought. This is particularly concerning because of the importance of the Colorado River Basin, which supplies water to 40 million people across 7 states. As much as 85% of that water comes from snowpack.

Snowmelt recording stations in the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington are reporting the greatest snowpack deficits in the western United States. Currently, 87% of stations in Washington State and  91% of stations in Oregon are reporting a snow drought. Some states, such as California, are already experiencing an early melt out of snow and have already lost all of their snowpack.

Less snowpack and widespread snow drought causes landscapes to dry out earlier in the year, extending the amount of time forests remain vulnerable to wildfire. Experts are warning that the conditions we are looking at this year are much worse than we have seen in previous, and those years turned out to be active and hot fire seasons as well.

When Plants Become Fuel

In fire science, grasses, shrubs, fallen branches, and trees are all considered “fuel.” Over time, excess vegetation can build up in forests and grasslands, especially in areas where natural fires have been suppressed for decades. This buildup creates more “fuel” or material for fires to burn, allowing them to grow hotter, spread faster, and become more difficult to control. Hot temperatures and drought also dry out underbrush and low vegetation, creating what  is called  “ladder fuels.” These types of fuels allow flames to climb from the forest floor into the tops of trees. This is particularly dangerous because once a fire reaches the forest canopy it can become what is referred to as a “crown fire”. Crown fires spread rapidly from treetop to treetop, and are extremely dangerous and often are not able to be stopped.

Invasive plant species can make this problem even worse. Some invasive plants, such as cheatgrass in the western U.S., grow quickly and form dense, highly flammable mats across the landscape. These plants can dramatically increase how frequently fires occur, even in ecosystems that historically burned less often.

The Impact of Forest Service Cuts on Wildfire Season

The U.S. The Forest Service is one of the primary agencies responsible for managing wildfires. The agency manages fires on all national forests and grasslands, which covers over 190 million acres. Currently, the Forest Service is undergoing an ‘agency restructuring’ which is having immense effects on both employees and the land they manage.

The agency lost 5,860 of its 35,550 employees during the first half of 2025 due to Department Of Government Efficiency cuts. On top of this, Tom Schultz, the Chief of the U.S. Forest Service, recently announced a ‘restructuring’ of the agency, which includes moving its headquarters from Washington, D.C. to Salt Lake City, closing regional offices in favor of state offices, and getting rid of a significant portion of its research division. The cut of the research division included closing  57 of its 77 research stations across 31 states, which, you guessed it, researched fire.

Forest management also involves much more than fighting active fires. It includes conducting prescribed burns, removing excess vegetation, monitoring forest health, and researching changing fire behavior, all of which help mitigate the impact of wildfire. Due to cuts, some of these land management practices have not been able to take place. What this means for the 2026 fire season is that there is less research being done, less fire prevention being done, and less hands to fight fire.

How El Niño Influences Fire Risk

Climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean can also affect wildfire conditions across North America. El Niño is the warm phase of a climate cycle called the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. During El Niño years, warmer ocean temperatures influence weather patterns around the globe, and can unintentionally increase wildfire risk.  Depending on the region, El Niño can bring periods of intense rainfall followed by extreme heat and drought. This affects fire because wet conditions often lead to rapid plant growth, producing more flammable grasses and brush. When those plants later dry out during hot weather, they become ideal fuel for wildfires. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts a 82% chance of El Niño conditions developing later this month and into July. 

To learn more about the upcoming El Niño, read May’s Climate News.

Why Wildfires Matter in Northern Illinois

Although northern Illinois is not known for massive forest fires like other states, wildfires still affect our region. The most visible impact is smoke. Wildfire smoke contains tiny particles called PM 2.5, which are dangerous to human health because they are small enough to be inhaled and even enter our bloodstream. This worsens asthma, irritates lungs, and increases risks for heart and respiratory conditions, especially for children, older adults, and people with existing health concerns. In 2023, Rockford had 10 days of "Unhealthy," 2 days of "Very Unhealthy," and 32 days of "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" air quality. This is only expected to get worse, as wildfires in Canada are projected to increase 25% by 2030 and 75% by 2100, sending more smoke into the Rockford Region, further decreasing our air quality.

Looking Ahead into Future Fire Seasons

Scientists expect wildfire activity to continue increasing as the climate warms and weather patterns become more extreme. Longer dry periods, hotter temperatures, and changing precipitation patterns are all creating conditions that allow fires to start more easily and burn more intensely. While wildfire headlines often focus on the flames out west, their effects reach all of us, including communities here in northern Illinois. Understanding the science behind wildfires helps us better prepare for the future, and it reminds us that Earth is a closed system that is deeply interconnected, no matter where you are. 

Sources:

Wildfire season is off to a historic start and it could get worse - CNN

National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook- National Interagency Fire Center

Why 2026 Could Be One of the Worst Wildfire Seasons in Recent U.S. History- Outside magazine

Forest Service Will Close Research Stations That Study Wildfire Risk- New York Times

Wildfire Smoke- Illinois Department of Public Health 

What Happens if We Do Nothing: Community Impact Report- Region 1 Planning 

A Winter With Less Snow Could Create Huge Problems for the West- The Sierra Club

Snow Drought Current Conditions and Impacts in the West- NOAA